EURUSD Price Bounces Back Above 1.1780: But NFP Data Can Change the Market
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Ultra-Compact Summary Section Summary EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1780 zone US-Iran peace optimism lifts the Euro US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report might shift the market
Why Is EUR/USD Gaining Ground?
US-Iran peace optimism and the weaker Dollar Index lift the Euro. Here are the key market drivers now-
US-Iran Peace Optimism
President Trump paused “Project Freedom” to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which indicated “great progress” in negotiations. Any peace deal would ease oil supply fears, reducing the dollar’s safe-haven premium.
ECB Rate Hike Expectations
Markets are increasingly pricing in a European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike as early as June 2026. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has stated the ECB may need to raise rates if the inflation outlook does not improve significantly.
Fed on Hold
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) currently shows no immediate signals of cutting interest rates, but its stance is seen as less hawkish compared to an ECB that may be about to hike — a divergence that supports the euro.
Weaker US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY is hovering near 98.10, under pressure from both geopolitical optimism and upcoming labor data uncertainty.
Technical Indicators
EUR/USD is trading within a constructive short-term structure, but faces key resistance levels.
Resistance: 1.1745 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
Support: 1.1702 (20-period EMA)
What Should Traders Do Now? NFP Data Is the Key
Today’s NFP report is the single biggest event risk of the week. The forecast stands at 95,000 new jobs, a sharp slowdown from the 178,000 jobs added previously.
- If NFP comes in WEAK (below 95,000), it would signal a slowing US economy, increasing bets that the Fed may cut rates sooner. This would be bearish for the USD and bullish for EUR/USD. The pair could push above 1.1825 and target 1.1938.
- If NFP comes in STRONG (above 95,000) would reinforce “higher-for-longer” Fed policy expectations, boosting the dollar. EUR/USD could pull back toward the 1.1702–1.1666 support zone, and a break below 1.1578 would signal a deeper decline.
- Avoid entering new positions right before the 18:30 UTC NFP release, spreads widen, and volatility spikes sharply.
About the author:
Richard DawsonFinancial Market Analyst & Researcher
Richard Dawson is an experienced market analyst and financial writer with nearly a decade of expertise in Forex, Crypto, and Gold trading. He specializes in VPS technologies, broker research, and copy trading systems. At SureShotFX, Richard writes blogs, educational guides, and research content that help traders make confident decisions.
