EURUSD Price Holds above 1.1600 ahead of Warsh’s First Fed Decision
- EUR/USD is locked in a tight range around 1.1610
- The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%
- Traders await the first Fed decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh
- Trump may release the US-Iran peace deal before Friday, affecting the pair
Why is the EUR/USD Price Stuck?
Wednesday’s Fed decision and Friday’s Trump peace deal are keeping the EURUSD pair stuck in this tight range.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range for a fourth consecutive meeting, the first decision under newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Beneath the surface, the dollar's footing has softened. A sharp drop in crude oil prices, driven by progress toward a US-Iran agreement, with a signing ceremony reportedly slated for Friday, has eased inflation fears and pulled US Treasury yields lower. Markets have already unwound expectations for nearly two Fed hikes over the coming year, and that repricing has tracked the Euro's recovery almost step for step.
On the other side of the pair, the euro remains supported. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the central bank "needs to act again, if needed," flagging persistent upside inflation risks that keep the single currency firm against its peers.
Technical Picture: Range-Bound Before the Break
The pair is steady inside a tightening range, holding just under its 20-day EMA near 1.1599.
Key Resistance: 1.1685
Key Support: 1.1500
What Should Be Traders' Move?
Central-bank decision days are notorious for sharp, two-way whipsaws, so patience may matter more than prediction here.
With EUR/USD compressed between 1.1500 support and 1.1685 resistance, many traders are waiting for a confirmed break rather than positioning ahead of the announcement.
Crucially, it is the Fed's tone on the updated dot plot, and Warsh's first press conference, not just the rate itself, that is likely to set the next direction. Tight risk management and respect for those 1.1500 / 1.1685 boundaries may help navigate the volatility around the event instead of guessing the outcome in advance.
About the author:
Sarah ThompsonLead Forex Strategist & Financial Writer
Sarah Thompson is a professional Forex trader with over 7 years of experience in the financial markets. She specializes in Forex trading strategies, technical analysis, Gold and Indices market trends, risk management, and performance evaluation. Since joining SureShotFX in 2021, Sarah has authored numerous in-depth articles, reports, and insights for traders of all experience levels.
