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News · XAUUSD

Gold Price Forecast for July: Can Gold Hold $4,150?

Sarah Thompson
Sarah Thompson
Lead Forex Strategist & Financial Writer
2 hours ago
Gold Price Forecast for July
Ultra-Compact Summary Section
Summary
  • Gold eases toward $4,164, pressured by a rebounding US Dollar
  • New Iran-US tensions lift safe-haven Dollar demand
  • Weak June US jobs data trimmed the September rate hike

What is Affecting the Gold Price?

A stronger US Dollar and geopolitical events are the key price drivers at this moment.

Safe-Haven Dollar Rebounds on Hormuz Risks

The main driver is a firmer US Dollar. Iran confirmed plans to introduce new service fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran signalled it will not finalise talks with the US until every clause of the existing memorandum is met.

That geopolitical uncertainty, combined with a fresh uptick in USD/JPY, pushed the Dollar off two-week lows and capped gold's advance.

Weak US Jobs Data Cools Rate-Hike Bets

Last Thursday's June Nonfarm Payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 forecast, with the Labor Force Participation Rate slipping to a five-year low of 61.5%.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a September rate hike fell from 66% to around 54%, a backdrop that has cushioned gold's downside even as the Dollar firms.

Technical Outlook: Balanced but Bearish-Leaning

XAU/USD has reclaimed the 21-day SMA at roughly $4,157, now acting as immediate support.

Immediate Support: $4,157 (21-day SMA)
Resistance: $4,392 (50-day SMA)

For deeper setups, follow SureShotFX’s gold trading signals.

Wall Street remains split. JPMorgan trimmed its Q3 target to $4,300 and Q4 to $4,500, while Goldman Sachs holds a bullish $4,900 year-end view and central-bank buying is seen anchoring a floor near $3,900.

What Should Be Traders' Move?

Gold is caught between a firmer Dollar, so patience matters more than prediction here.

  • Range-focused traders may watch how price behaves around $4,157. 
  • Breakout traders may prefer to wait for a decisive move through the $4,260 trend line before committing, and to size positions with defined risk
  • Keeping an eye on Middle East developments, this week's FOMC minutes, and the return of full US liquidity can help
Sarah Thompson

About the author:

Sarah Thompson

Lead Forex Strategist & Financial Writer

Sarah Thompson is a professional Forex trader with over 7 years of experience in the financial markets. She specializes in Forex trading strategies, technical analysis, Gold and Indices market trends, risk management, and performance evaluation. Since joining SureShotFX in 2021, Sarah has authored numerous in-depth articles, reports, and insights for traders of all experience levels.

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