Gold Recovers from Week's Low & Holds Above $4,300: Fed’s Next Move is Key

What are the Gold Market Drivers Today?

FOMC minutes on interest rates are the only key for today’s market. Traders await the event data release to catch the market trend.

The Fed's July Minutes Take Center Stage

The main event for gold this week is the release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes on 19 August at 14:00 EDT. The minutes give a detailed look at what Fed officials discussed during their latest policy meeting and show how divided policymakers were. 

At the meeting, the Fed voted 9–3 to keep its benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, with three members voting for a rate hike. Since gold does not pay interest, higher interest rates can make it less attractive. Traders are therefore looking at the minutes for clues about the Fed's next steps.

Cooling Rate-Hike Bets Support The Metal

Gold has found support as markets have reduced their expectations for a September rate hike. The chances of a hike have fallen to around 31%–35%, from 52.2% a week earlier, following weaker US economic data. 

A Reuters poll conducted from 12–17 August also showed that most economists expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2026. Lower rate expectations have also kept the US dollar under some pressure. This can support gold because the metal is often seen as a safe-haven asset when investors are looking for stability.

A Quiet Calendar Keeps Eyes on The Fed

With only a few major economic releases scheduled this week, traders are mainly focused on the Fed minutes and next week's Jackson Hole symposium, which runs from 27–29 August. Analysts expect gold to see only moderate volatility around the minutes.

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Technical Indicators & Market Trend

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a consolidation phase, trading around $4,354.92, after holding steady ground last week. The price is holding above its 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,215.01 and $4,155.34, respectively, indicating a bullish near-term bias.

Resistance: $4,400, $4,450

Support: $4,310, $4,220

Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, said,

“A sustained break above $4,390 could open the door (for gold) towards $4,505, while a break below $4,300 could expose $4,200 and $4,150," 

What Should Traders Watch Next?

• Upside: A break above $4,380–$4,400 could push gold toward $4,450 and possibly $4,510.
• Downside: A drop below $4,310–$4,300 could send gold toward $4,220–$4,206.
• High-Impact Event Ahead: The Fed minutes are due today, on August 19, 2026, at 14:00 ET. Any change in the Fed's rate outlook could move the US Dollar and gold.