WTI Crude Oil Hovers Near $103- Breakout to $110 again or Slide Back to $92
- WTI crude oil is trading around $103–$104 per barrel
- USOIL price is tied to US-Iran tensions and Hormuz closure
- The EIA warned that global oil inventories are declining rapidly
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, cutting off nearly 20% of global oil supply
What Is Driving WTI Crude Oil Prices Right Now?
The US-Iran conflict and the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz are the key price drivers of US crude oil now.
Trump’s Mixed Signals
On Monday, Trump announced he had called off a planned military strike on Iran, following requests from the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. WTI dropped sharply toward $101. By Tuesday, prices fully recovered above $103 after Trump warned Iran.
Record US Inventory Draw
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 9.1 million barrel draw in US crude inventories for the week ended May 15, 2026. This indicates early triple the analyst estimate of 3.4 million barrels. If this is confirmed, WTI could push back toward $107–$108.
Iran Refuses to Yield
Iran’s Tasnim news agency stated that US conditions remain overly demanding despite revisions in the latest draft proposal. Tehran’s deputy foreign minister signalled no flexibility, keeping the diplomatic deadlock firmly in place.
Alarm on Global Supply by the IEA
The IEA (International Energy Agency) warned on Monday that global oil inventories are declining rapidly, with Middle East production shut-ins estimated at an average of 10.5 million b/d in April.
The EIA stated in its April STEO,
“The closure of the strait has dramatically reduced the availability of oil supplies to global markets and has had cascading effects across oil supply chains.”
Technical Indicators: What the Charts Say
WTI crude oil is trading around $103.35 on the daily chart, maintaining a constructive bullish bias.
Support levels to watch: $103.35, $92.12 (50-day EMA)
Resistance levels to watch: $104.00, $108.00, $113.00
What Should Traders Do Now?
Approaching with a wait-and-confirm mindset is the best move now.
- Watch Wednesday’s EIA report, a big draw could push WTI toward $108
- Track Trump’s Iran statements closely over the next 48–72 hours
- Bullish traders, wait for a daily close above $104–$105 before entering
- Use tight stop-losses; avoid large positions near key news
- Expect high volatility this week, FOMC minutes, and PMI data add to the risk
About the author:
Richard DawsonFinancial Market Analyst & Researcher
Richard Dawson is an experienced market analyst and financial writer with nearly a decade of expertise in Forex, Crypto, and Gold trading. He specializes in VPS technologies, broker research, and copy trading systems. At SureShotFX, Richard writes blogs, educational guides, and research content that help traders make confident decisions.
