Oil Prices Stuck Between Frozen Pipelines and Overheated Geopolitics
Crude benchmarks changed little on Monday after jumping more than 2% last week, as traders balanced short-term supply disruptions against longer-term fears of oversupply. Brent hovered near $66 a barrel, while US oil sat around $61—both at their highest levels since mid-January. Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of 2.7% to close on Friday at their highest points since January 14.
What’s driving it:
- Harsh winter weather in the US knocked out roughly 250,000 barrels per day of production, hitting key regions like Texas and the Bakken. JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Monday.
- At the same time, geopolitical tension is back in focus. A US carrier strike group heading toward the Middle East—and sharp rhetoric from Iran—has added a risk premium to. prices.
Despite the noise, analysts say the broader picture still points to a surplus in 2026.
“Traders are weighing the durability of the surplus more heavily than episodic headlines,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. “So, unless OPEC+ or major producers announce meaningful cuts, the overall oil market picture still points to soft structural fundamentals in 2026.”
