April 2026 Forex Market Outlook During Iran-US Conflict
- Dollar wings wildly after Trump’s announcement for April 6 deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- USD bounced back—climbing to 99.925 on the DXY index
- The Euro is holding near $1.1592
- The British pound is trading around $1.3308
- The Japanese yen recovered from its worst level this year
What’s Driving the Prices Right Now?
On Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s new president had asked the U.S. for a ceasefire. But he added a condition that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen first.
Here are the major currency highlights:
U.S. Dollar (USD): Slipped to a one-week low on peace hopes, then quickly bounced back. The dollar index (DXY) is showing a bearish signal, leaving room for more downside toward the 99.48–99.68 support zone.
Euro (EUR/USD): The euro climbed 0.27% to $1.1584 on Wednesday, heading for its second day of gains in a row. Europe’s heavy reliance on imported energy keeps the euro from gaining more ground.
British Pound (GBP/USD): The pound gained 0.29% to reach $1.3261.The UK is seen as less likely to be hit by new U.S. tariffs, which is giving the pound sterling a small advantage over the euro right now.
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Yen held flat at 158.63—the last fall. Japan’s central bank has signaled it could raise interest rates if the yen keeps falling; that helped Yen to recover.
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF): The Swiss franc strengthened as the dollar fell 0.58% against it to 0.7947, its second straight losing day. The Swiss franc tends to gain when global tension eases slightly, as investors move out of the dollar.
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): The Aussie dollar gained 0.26% against the greenback to reach $0.6918, tracking the improvement in global mood that came with ceasefire talk.
Markets are slowly shifting their biggest fear. A few weeks ago, the main worry was rising inflation from high oil prices. Now the bigger concern is slowing economic growth.
“A U.S. exit from the war within the next few weeks would certainly remove one massive layer of tension. However, it doesn’t automatically guarantee smooth sailing and energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian response will be critical.” — Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG
What Traders Should Watch This Month
The week ahead brings both Trump’s April 6 war deadline and the U.S. jobs report data for March– a double dose of market-moving news events that could trigger sharp moves across all major currency pairs. So, the best trading strategy is the key now.
- Do not chase the USD higher just yet. It can spike on war headlines.
- Watch the $1.1460 level for EURUSD closely. If the euro holds above it, a move back toward $1.16 is possible.
- The pound is the most stable for now and is trading in a $1.32–$1.34 range. The GBP/USD price shift depends on the US-Iran conflicts.
- Avoid buying the dollar too high against the yen, especially near 160.00, as the interest rate might increase at the April 28 meeting.
- Watch for any news from Switzerland’s central bank, as the Swiss franc is rising, which could quickly reverse.
- The Aussie could pull back, but buyers are likely to step in around the mid-0.6900s.
