GBP/USD Price Forecast: Two High-Impact Events on April 24 Could Shake the Pound
- GBP/USD is trading around 1.3521, testing the nine-day EMA support near 1.3493
- UK Retail Sales MoM data releases at 12:00 GMT- high impact event
- UoM Consumer Sentiment Index data releases at 20:00 GMT- high impact event
- Both high-impact news can weigh on the currencies
GBP/USD hovers near 1.3500 as markets brace for UK Retail Sales MoM and US UoM Consumer Sentiment data on April 24. So, traders are closely waiting for the data release for the upcoming market shift.
Why Are These Two Events So Important?
UK retail sales data shows the consumer spending data, while the UoM sentiment data shows the consumer concern regarding the economy. Both can impact market volatility for the pound and USD.
UK Retail Sales MoM: GBP News Event (12:00 GMT)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of goods sold by UK retailers from one month to the next. It is one of the most direct indicators of consumer spending health.
Last month, the number was -0.4%, which means people spent less than the month before. That was not great news for the pound. This time, analysts expect it to bounce back to +0.2%, meaning shoppers may have opened their wallets again.
If the number comes in at +0.2% or higher, good news for the pound. GBP/USD could rise.
If the number comes in below +0.2%, bad news for the pound. GBP/USD could fall further.
Why does shopping data affect the pound? Because when people spend more, it means the economy is doing well. A healthy economy makes a currency stronger.
UoM Consumer Sentiment Index: USD News Event (20:00 GMT)
The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index measures how confident around 500 US consumers feel about current and future economic conditions.
Last month, the reading was 53.3. This month, it is expected to drop to 47.6, a big fall. A lower score means Americans are feeling more worried about their finances and the economy.
If the reading comes in at or below 47.6, the US Dollar could weaken, which will make the USD (US Dollar) bearish.
If the reading is higher than expected, the Dollar could strengthen and push GBP/USD back toward the 50-day EMA at 1.3423.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 1.3599 (April 17 two-month high) → 1.3750 (upper channel boundary)
Support: 1.3423 (50-day EMA)
What Should Traders Do Now?
Today is a high-risk day for GBP/USD because two major reports are being released at different times. Here is a simple guide:
If UK Retail Sales data beat forecast (+0.2% or higher):
- The pound could climb back toward the 1.3599 resistance. Look for buy opportunities above $1.3500, and take stop-losses below the 9-day EMA at 1.3493..
- If UoM Sentiment misses forecast (comes in below 47.6): The Dollar may weaken, giving the pound another push higher. Watch for a move above $1.3599 as a potential buy signal.
- If both data sets disappoint, GBP/USD could fall toward $1.3423. In this case, wait on the sidelines until the market gives a clear direction.
- Avoid trading with large position sizes right before these reports. Prices can jump or drop very quickly around big news events.
