Gold Jumps, Oil Drops: Trump’s Two-Week Iran Ceasefire Flips the Commodity Market
- Oil drops below $95 per barrel- a stunning drop after it hit $117 earlier the same day
- Spot gold jumped 2.5% and silver rose 4.6% as risk appetite returned
- Gold had been under heavy pressure all week, falling 13% since the Iran conflict
- The Strait of Hormuz may now reopen
What Influenced the Commodity Market Shift?
The commodity market got a massive shift on Tuesday night. After weeks of climbing oil prices and falling gold, Trump’s surprise ceasefire announcement turned everything upside down in a couple of hours. So, the major price drivers are-
Trump’s Iran War Ceasefire: Trump posted on Truth Social that he is suspending attacks on Iran for two weeks, as Iran is agreeing to an immediate, safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement came before Trump’s deadline and right after the commodity market reacted.
WTI crude oil, which was traded as high as $117 earlier in the day, fell below $92–$95, and Brent dropped sharply below $100–$108 a stunning single-session reversal. U.S. crude is still up more than 70% since the start of 2026, even after Tuesday night’s sharp drop.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said,
“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”
Gold Losing Demand: Gold had already fallen 3.6% to $4,587.55 per ounce earlier in the week after Trump confirmed the war would continue for weeks. This made the US Dollar stronger, weakening the Gold. Gold became more expensive for buyers in other currencies, reducing the demand.
But after the ceasefire talk, Gold against USD (XAU/USD) jumped over 2–3% to near $4,811–$4,841 as the reduced war risk boosted the safe haven.
What Should Traders Do Now?
- If Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices could drop sharply, easing inflation and raising hopes for rate cuts, good for gold over time.
- The Fed releases its latest meeting notes today. If the tone is tough, gold stays under pressure. If it softens, gold could push toward $4,800+.
- US CPI data this week is a high-impact news to watch. High inflation keeps the Fed on hold, which is bad for gold short-term. A cooler reading could give gold prices a meaningful lift.
Gold trading is showing a bearish short-term bias. Gold remains below its key 21-day moving average at $4,774.95 and the 50-day moving average at $4,943.64. However, the ceasefire bounce puts the gold to have found support at $4,580.40, while resistance is capped at $4,825.90. Traders eye $4,900 next.
