Gold Price Falls as Trump Sets Deadline for Iran to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
- Gold is trading defensively near $4,600.
- Iran rejected the ultimatum and continued strikes on energy infrastructure
- March US jobs data came in far stronger than expected, reducing hopes for rate cuts
- Goldman Sachs maintains its $5,400 per ounce year-end 2026 gold price target
Gold Market Price Update
Gold opened Monday with a bearish gap, dipping below $4,610 per ounce in early trading after a 1.7% drop in the previous session. The metal is now down more than 12% since the US-Iran war started. Though gold hit an all-time high of $5,594 per ounce back in January, it is now nearly 20% below that peak. What’s mainly moving the gold market are-
US-Iran War:
Over the weekend, Trump posted a warning on Truth Social about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical shipping route in the Middle East. He set a deadline, writing in a Truth Social post:
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”
But Iran rejected this ultimatum and continued striking at US energy infrastructure. With it nearly shut down, oil prices have stayed above $100 per barrel, making gold less attractive to investors.
Jobs Data:
On Good Friday (April 3), the US released its March jobs report. The economy added 178,000 jobs, which is nearly three times more than the 60,000 analysts expected. This pushed the US dollar stronger and crushed hopes for rate cuts.
When the dollar strengthens, it makes gold more expensive for global buyers, reducing demand and pushing prices down.
What Should Traders Watch This Week?
The metal holds a broadly bearish near-term bias below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,774.95 and the 50-day SMA at $4,943.64. Three events could move gold sharply in either direction:
- Trump’s Tuesday Deadline (April 8, 8 PM ET): This is the biggest wildcard. If military strikes escalate, oil prices spike further and gold faces more pressure. If a deal emerges, gold could rally fast.
- FOMC Minutes (April 8): The US Federal Reserve releases notes from its last meeting. If the language is hawkish (focused on fighting inflation), gold could fall further. Softer language would support a gold recovery.
- US CPI Inflation Data (later this week): High inflation numbers would keep rate-cut hopes low and gold under pressure.
Despite the recent drop, major banks remain bullish on gold over the longer term. Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target of $5,400 per ounce. JPMorgan expects gold to trade between $4,900 and $5,300 through the rest of 2026.
The long-term case for gold remains intact. Central banks around the world, including China, Malaysia, and South Korea, are still actively buying gold. But the short-term picture depends on oil prices, the US Dollar strength, and Trump’s next move on Iran.
