Oil Prices Stuck Between Frozen Pipelines and Overheated Geopolitics
Crude benchmarks changed little on Monday after jumping more than 2% last week, as traders balanced short-term supply disruptions against longer-term fears of oversupply. Brent hovered near $66 a barrel, while US oil sat around $61—both at their highest levels since mid-January. Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of 2.7% to close on Friday at their highest points since January 14.
What’s driving it:
- Harsh winter weather in the US knocked out roughly 250,000 barrels per day of production, hitting key regions like Texas and the Bakken. JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Monday.
- At the same time, geopolitical tension is back in focus. A US carrier strike group heading toward the Middle East—and sharp rhetoric from Iran—has added a risk premium to. prices.
Despite the noise, analysts say the broader picture still points to a surplus in 2026.
“Traders are weighing the durability of the surplus more heavily than episodic headlines,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. “So, unless OPEC+ or major producers announce meaningful cuts, the overall oil market picture still points to soft structural fundamentals in 2026.”
About the author:
Richard DawsonFinancial Market Analyst & Researcher
Richard Dawson is an experienced market analyst and financial writer with nearly a decade of expertise in Forex, Crypto, and Gold trading. He specializes in VPS technologies, broker research, and copy trading systems. At SureShotFX, Richard writes blogs, educational guides, and research content that help traders make confident decisions.
