Gold Price Forecast for Next Week: Key Levels for Traders to Watch

What is Driving Gold Prices This Week?

US inflation rate, Fed interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments are the major price drivers for gold (XAUUSD) this week. 

Fed Hike Odds Jump to 81% After Strong US Jobs Data

Gold pays no interest, so higher interest rates make it less attractive to hold. The stronger employment report has raised expectations for another Fed rate hike in December. Reuters reported that markets were pricing in approximately an 81% chance of a December rate hike on Monday. 

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, exceeding economists' expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in September. If markets continue to price in tighter monetary policy, rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar could limit gold's recovery. 

Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst, World Gold Council, said,

“The outlook for gold looks finely balanced through to the end of the year. While rising interest rates and mixed inflation expectations present potential headwinds.”

US CPI and PPI Could Determine Gold's Next Move

The October US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, will be the week's most important economic release. 

Economists expect headline CPI to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, while core CPI is forecast to rise by 0.2%, after September's 0.6% jump.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) follows on Friday, Nov. 13; forecasts point to a 0.4% monthly rise after 1.3%. 

A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the US dollar and increase expectations of further monetary tightening, putting pressure on XAU/USD, and vice versa.

Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

Gold has also received support from easing geopolitical concerns and lower oil prices. US President Donald Trump said further attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks to end the conflict continue.

Oil price drops can slow inflation. Slower inflation reduces the need for more rate hikes, which lowers the cost of holding gold. 

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM ‌Trade, said,

"Trump's more conciliatory tone toward Iran is helping keep a lid on oil prices, which in ​turn eases some of the inflation pressure that had been weighing on the metal ​along with a modest pullback in the dollar."

Central Banks and ETFs Demand Offer Support

Longer-term demand also remains supportive. The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a net 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 2026, taking year-to-date purchases to 675 tonnes. Global gold ETFs also recorded $31 billion in quarterly inflows.

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added $2.7 billion in October, led by Europe and Asia. Global ETF holdings reached a record 4,275 tonnes, although North American funds saw $512 million in outflows. 

These factors provide a demand cushion, although they do not guarantee further short-term price increases.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: What Does the Gold Chart Show?

Gold's short-term recovery is improving, but the broader technical structure remains cautious.

However, the daily chart still shows gold trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the recent recovery has not yet confirmed a broader bullish trend.

Gold has flipped bullish on the 4-hour chart, created on TradingView by the SureShotFX trade team. After the sell-off to 3,870, price printed an iBoS and then a clean CHoCH above 4,082, leaving a fair value gap between 3,965 and 4,015.

Friday’s jobs-day drop swept the sell-side liquidity near 4,028, and buyers stepped straight back in. Price has now reclaimed the breaker block at 4,090 to 4,107 and is trading around 4,111.

As long as the breaker holds, the next stop is the buy-side liquidity near 4,155. After that, the main target is the liquidity resting above 4,200 at the October highs.

Resistance: $4,140, 4,165, $4,200

Support: $4,100, $4,020,  $4,000

Will Gold Go Up or Down Next Week?

Gold has a cautiously bullish short-term outlook for November 9–13, provided XAU/USD holds above the $4,070 support area.

Bullish Scenario: Can Gold Break Above $4,157?

If gold maintains buying pressure above $4,100 and breaks through the $4,140–$4,157 resistance zone, buyers could target $4,180–$4,200.

A sustained move above $4,200 would strengthen the bullish recovery and potentially attract additional buying interest. Traders can monitor a confirmed breakout and subsequent retest of resistance for potential long opportunities.

Bearish Scenario: Will XAU/USD Fall Below $4,070?

If gold fails to hold above $4,100 and breaks below $4,070, selling pressure could increase.

The next downside levels to monitor are $4,030–$4,040, followed by the psychological $4,000 support area. Traders can watch for a confirmed support breakdown or a failed retest before considering potential short opportunities.

Economic Events to Watch for Gold This Week

What is the Gold Price Forecast for Next Week?

Gold has a cautiously bullish short-term outlook for November 9–13, provided XAU/USD holds above the $4,070 support area. The $4,140–$4,157 resistance zone is the first important upside hurdle, while $4,200 remains a key psychological target. On the downside, a break below $4,070 could expose $4,030 and $4,000.

Traders should avoid chasing sharp price movements around economic releases and consider confirmation, stop-loss placement, and keeping position sizes small around news releases.