Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Near $4,060 Ahead of US NFP Data
- Gold recovered nearly 5% from its October 30 low
- The US midterm election results increased expectations of political and economic uncertainty.
- Falling oil prices also eased some inflation concerns.
- Gold retreated towards $4,060 as traders awaited the US employment report.
- The NFP figures could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy decision.
Why Is Gold Rallying Despite Hawkish Fed Bets?
Gold is recovering despite expectations of another Fed rate hike because a weaker US dollar, lower Treasury yields, and safe-haven demand are supporting prices.
Gold pays no interest, making it more attractive when Treasury yields fall. A weaker dollar can also increase demand for gold among international buyers.
Midterm Election Results Increased Market Uncertainty
Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 US midterm elections, according to Associated Press reporting.
The result could limit the Trump administration's legislative agenda and increase uncertainty around US economic policy. This has contributed to demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.
Strategists at OCBC said,
“Rebounded sharply following the US midterm elections, supported by a softer USD, lower US Treasury yields and oil prices as markets reassessed the implications of political gridlock for US fiscal policy and growth.”
Falling Oil Prices Eased Inflation Concerns
Oil prices dropped sharply on November 4 amid hopes of progress towards a US-Iran agreement.
Brent crude fell 8.7%, while WTI declined 8.3%, according to the Financial Times.
Lower oil prices can ease inflation pressure and reduce expectations of further monetary tightening. This may support gold, although broader inflation data will remain important to the Federal Reserve. The November market outlook might help to learn more about upcoming releases.
US Stock Market Selloff Increased Safe-Haven Demand
US stocks fell sharply on November 5 as a heavy selloff hit AI and chip stocks. Traders worried that a Democratic Congress could slow the build-out of AI data centers.
According to the Associated Press:
S&P 500: Down 4.4%.
Nasdaq Composite: Down 5.5%.
Dow Jones: Down 3.4%.
The selloff increased market uncertainty and supported interest in defensive assets such as gold.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD 4-Hour Setup
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,060 on November 6, 2026, after a strong recovery from its October 30 low of $3,870.32. However, sellers pushed prices lower near resistance.
The chart shows the recovery from the October low, with resistance at $4,147 and $4,200 and support at $4,075 and $4,000.
Before the rebound, gold broke below the $3,977 swing low (BOS) and swept sell-side liquidity at $3,870. Buyers then stepped in at the bullish order block between $3,895 and $3,915.
XAU/USD is showing signs of consolidation after failing to break above $4,147. Price now sits just above the 4-hour 20-period moving average at $4,027.
Two levels are particularly important:
Bullish scenario: A sustained break above $4,147 could open the way to $4,200.
Bearish scenario: A break below $4,008 could drag gold into the FVG and toward the bullish order block at $3,895 to $3,915, with $3,870 below that.
The NFP report could determine which side breaks first.
Technical Indicators & Market Trend
Resistance: $4,142 and $4,200
Support: $4,008, $3,915, and $3,870
Gold's short-term momentum has improved, but its broader daily trend remains bearish. According to the chart data:
Daily RSI: 46.6, indicating weak momentum.
Daily MACD: Below zero but above its signal line, so selling pressure is fading but not gone.
50-day SMA: $4,198.
100-day SMA: $4,201.
200-day SMA: $4,480.
4-hour RSI: 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Gold remains below all three daily moving averages. A sustained move above $4,142 would strengthen the recovery, while a break below $4,008 could put sellers back in control.
What Should Traders Do Now?
- Watch for NFP Impact: The US jobs report is due today; be careful while trading around this event period.
- US Dollar and Treasury Yields: Watch the US Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yields. A weaker dollar and falling yields could support gold.
- Stock Market Sentiment: Continued stock market volatility could increase safe-haven demand for gold. A market recovery may reduce it.
- Bullish Scenario: A soft jobs number that keeps gold above $4,008 could send it back to $4,142.
- Bearish Scenario: A strong jobs number could boost December hike bets. A break below $4,008 may pull gold into the FVG and toward $3,895 to $3,915, with $3,870 next.
- Warning! High-Impact Event Today: The US Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings) is scheduled for November 6 at 8:30 AM ET. Forecasts are 50,000–65,000 new jobs (previous: 29,000), 4.2% unemployment (previous: 4.2%), and Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) at 0.2%-0.3% (previous: 0.1%).
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FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around $4,040 per ounce early on November 6, 2026. Prices vary by provider and trading feed.
What are the key gold support and resistance levels?
Resistance sits at $4,082, $4,142, and $4,200. Support sits at $4,008, the $3,895 to $3,915 zone, and $3,870.
How does NFP affect gold prices?
Strong NFP data can strengthen the US dollar and increase interest-rate expectations, potentially pushing gold lower. Weak employment data can support gold by increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts.
